Ireland’s 2024 General Election: High stakes, shifting alliances, and the battle for voters’ confidence

Taoiseach Simon Harris finally fired the general election starting gun, crystallising the “worst kept secret in Irish politics”; polling day will be November 29th. Harris travelled to Áras an Uachtaráin on Friday 8th November to request the dissolution of Dáil Éireann. 

With speculators considering other December polling dates as possibilities, it’s hardly a surprise that the Fine Gael leader chose an earlier election. His party has been leading in the polls in recent months, currently sitting at over 3 percentage points ahead of Fianna Fáil, and around 6 percentage points ahead of Sinn Féin. With the potential to capitalise on a dip in Sinn Féin support and a very recent “bumper budget” giveaway of €10.5 billion in tax cuts and spending increases for the Irish public, the country’s youngest-ever Taoiseach may have timed things perfectly, is it Fine Gael’s election to lose?

Well, Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary might be testing that. He insulted over 120,000 Irish teachers in the space of a few minutes at a Fine Gael event early last week. Criticising the number of teachers-turned-politicians in the Dáil, O’Leary said he “wouldn’t generally employ a lot of teachers to go out and get things done”. After uproar about his comments (and the subsequent cheers from Fine Gael members heard in the background) O’Leary doubled down, telling Newstalk that he thinks former Media and Tourism Minister Catherine Martin would be “far better off back in the classroom”. When asked if he thinks the same about an ex-teacher he happens to be endorsing, Tánaiste Micheál Martin, O’Leary of course backtracked a little, saying there were “exceptions to every rule”.  

While the Irish public will no doubt be looking to its politicians for answers on issues of housing, immigration, and living costs, none of that may matter in the face of scandal. Sinn Féin’s recent setbacks have raised questions about whether this election will really be won based on policy or if it will be party reputation that becomes the deciding factor. According to the 2020 RTÉ exit Poll, 44% of Irish voters only decided who to vote for during the three-and-a-half-week campaigning period. This compares to the UK, where on the first day of campaigning for the 2024 general election, 84% of voters were “defintely sure”, “probably sure” or had a “good idea” about who was getting their vote. For Irish voters, how each party behaves over the next few weeks could be just as important as what’s in their manifestos. 

No single party has won more than half of the seats in a Dáil for over 40 years, so Irish political parties are familiar with working together after an election to form a government. You might expect this to force parties to behave somewhat delicately when criticising their competition in the press, bearing in mind that their rival today may be their only hope of forming a government tomorrow. However, this appears not to be the case, as the gloves have already come off between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, kicking off the campaign with some thinly veiled digs at one another. 

Within the first few days of the campaign, Fianna Fáil called Fine Gael’s planned hospitality VAT rate a “serious mistake”, Fine Gael labelled Fianna Fáil’s entire manifesto as being “full of uncosted promises with little substance”, and the Greens mocked Fianna Fáil’s “newfound interest in the climate”. However, whether these jabs between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael result from decades-long rivalry or a mutual interest to keep the focus off Sinn Féin is up for debate. Perhaps this “war of words” between the previous coalition parties is an attempt to distract the media and voters from their real rival: the opposition. 

Indeed, Ireland’s main opposition party might have coalition plans of its own, with Sinn Féin TDs Donnchadh Ó Laoghaire and Thomas Gould insisting the party has learned from its 2020 mistakes and is ensuring it will be in a position to commence coalition talks if the time comes. With People Before Profit seeking a formal voting pact with Sinn Féin and other left-leaning parties such as Labour, the Greens and the Social Democrats, this may be the year that Ireland will get its first-ever left-wing coalition government. Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald says the party has changed its strategy this time after fielding too few candidates in the last general election. Putting forward over 70 candidates, Sinn Féin insists they are “serious about winning” this time. However, with support for their party on the decline since May, Sinn Féin may have left it too late for any new election strategy to save them. When you also consider the level of disagreement among Ireland’s left on the issue of immigration, a left-leaning coalition may not work in practice. People Before Profit insists that a condition for any left coalition should be a commitment by all parties “not to engage with the scapegoating of asylum seekers”. 

With the campaign yet to take full force, Sinn Féin has the potential to turn things around and improve their vote before polling day, with some suggesting that the final week of campaigning will be particularly crucial. That being said, current polling suggests that even if Sinn Féin can up their support somewhat in the coming weeks, the real power still lies in the hands of Fine Gael and their possible future partner in government, Fianna Fáil.